Disruptive Telephony

Is Nokia about to drop its entire mobile platform for Android or Windows Phone 7? Yesterday the buzz in the telecom space was all about an apparent memo to employees from Nokia CEO Stephen Elop that said Nokia was on a "burning platform" and needed to make some hard choices. The text of the memo, which Engadget has in full, is brilliantly written. The metaphor of the worker on a burning oil platform is well done... and I expect we'll hear more usage of that in the future by others.

The memo is also a very well done and brutally honest assessment of where Nokia stands in the mobile market and where the competition sits. What I found most compelling, though, was the commentary around the "war of ecosystems" (my emphasis added):

The battle of devices has now become a war of ecosystems, where ecosystems include not only the hardware and software of the device, but developers, applications, ecommerce, advertising, search, social applications, location-based services, unified communications and many other things. Our competitors aren't taking our market share with devices; they are taking our market share with an entire ecosystem. This means we're going to have to decide how we either build, catalyse or join an ecosystem.

We ARE in a "war of ecosystems". No one can doubt that.

On a macro level it is Apple iOS versus Google Android, with Microsoft attempting to have some relevance with Windows Phone 7.

RIM would very much like to still be in the game with its Blackberry OS, but recent surveys don't bode well (66% of Verizon Blackberry users said they would likely move to the iPhone). HP would like to think it can be a player with WebOS (and is making a "big announcement" today) but that seriously remains to be seen. And Symbian? Well... read the Nokia CEO's letter...

The "war of ecosystems" is MUCH broader than the mobile market, of course... it's a war going on across the telecommunications and computer industry in general. It involves so many others, too, like Facebook and Twitter and everyone else in the "social" space...

It's a war around who can attract the most developers to build the most applications on a "platform"... it's a war around "open" versus "closed" ... around "simplicity" and "features"... around "applications" and "big, fat, dumb, pipes"... around "APIs"... around who can be our "portal" for communications ... about how can get the eyeballs...

It's a war for the future of our communications....

... and it's ALL about the ecosystems!

Who will survive?

That story is still being written... it's an exciting time... but a crazy, chaotic time, too...

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P.S. Engadget is now saying this memo/letter is true based on multiple sources... and I'm inclined to believe it. From a PR point-of-view, it's a brilliant move to hype and tease about Nokia's announcement on Friday. Many people - myself included - probably had no idea that Nokia was going to be making a huge announcement on Friday.

Well played, Nokia. You got our attention.

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Yes, I admit to laughing along with this one, found via Engadget. Enjoy:

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Verizon iPhone Announcement
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor & Satire Blog</a> The Daily Show on Facebook

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Once upon a time, I firmly believed that the day the iPhone launched on Verizon would be the day you could pretty much count AT&T out. I expected that would be a huge migration of users... and it would be the end...

Usually those thoughts came on days when I was having serious issues with AT&T's network and could only wish for the end of the AT&T monopoly to come... I live in southwestern New Hampshire and AT&T's network is merely "okay" in Keene, NH, and gets pretty abysmal - and nonexistent - when you travel not too far out of town. Driving the hour-plus over to the Manchester airport there are 2 or 3 pockets where I literally have no coverage for a few minutes with my iPhone 4 on AT&T's network.

Meanwhile, of course, Verizon has rock solid coverage throughout our area.

Unless you have been hiding in a cave, you know that today is the day Verizon announced the iPhone, with the actual phone being available on February 11th. There are a zillion news articles in every imaginable media out... the ginormous media feeding frenzy is something to behold. A huge amount of publicity for Apple... for a phone... and for one that has been out for a while.

The Mass Exodus

But I no longer expect the mass exodus from AT&T.

Largely because, as Mashable noted (as did others), AT&T has already protected itself by setting up huge Early Termination Fees. There is also the cost of buying a new iPhone as you need a CDMA phone vs a GSM phone (and then the issue of selling your old AT&T one).

I see a couple of other issues, too, that may impact only "power users", but still are issues that may prevent switching:

• Multi-tasking - My understanding is that with CDMA you cannot use your data connection while you are on a phone call. To me this is a fairly big issue. When someone actually calls me on my iPhone 4, it's often because they want some piece of information right then. Very typically I will be on the phone with them and will pull up a web browser or email to retrieve the information they may need (if I'm not near my computer). I can do this on a GSM iPhone 4 on AT&T. I apparently can't on Verizon's network.
  
  
• International travel - While the vast majority of US customers probably will not be doing too much travel outside the US, some of us will... and Verizon's CDMA limits you to "40 countries", which, if you look at the list of countries is basically Canada, Mexico, China, India, Israel, a host of Caribbean/Pacific island nations, a few South American countries and a few other random nations. I'm not planning to travel to Yemen any time soon, but odds are that I will be going to Europe, where my Verizon iPhone 4 is useless. (And Verizon's only overall solution is to use a device that does both CDMA and GSM.)
  
  
• Will the network hold up? While Verizon may tout its network as the "most reliable", I think many of us will be curious to see how well Verizon's network stands up under the onslaught of the data-intensive usage of the iPhone. Maybe it truly will work well... maybe it, too, will fail.

There is also the "speed" issue, which is causing some to say they will stick with AT&T, although in my personal case it doesn't matter what the speed is if you have no coverage!

For all these reasons, I don't expect to see a mass exodus from AT&T...

yet!

I do, though, expect that many new iPhone 4 customers will opt for Verizon over AT&T. Last year we got an iPhone for my wife, and had Verizon been an option we certainly would have gone that route for her, primarily for the coverage in our area.

I also expect that many renewing AT&T customers may consider the switch. Particularly in a year or so when the "iPhone 5" or whatever comes next is launched. At that point the cost to "upgrade" to the new iPhone X on the Verizon network may not be that big of a deal.

Meanwhile, I expect that many of us on AT&T's network will avoid paying the ETF fees and just suck it up and deal with our lock-in.

Why Google May Be The Biggest Loser

I think, though, that Google may be the biggest loser out of the news today. While AT&T had its monopoly on the iPhone, Verizon was the largest North American champion of the Android mobile operating system. Its "droid" commercials were ubiquitous on TV and other media, and its print ads were visible all over the place.

While I'm sure that Verizon will continue to market all of its various Android devices, the fact is that it now has the "must have" consumer device... the iPhone... and they have less incentive to push the Android devices.

Sure, the counterpoint is that AT&T now may market more of the Android devices to deal with loss of iPhone customers to Verizon. And maybe they will... and maybe that will make up for what Verizon would have promoted.

There is a part of me that would like that to be the case... I'd very much like to have a mobile ecosystem of devices with solid competition that encourages innovation and ensures we don't have a monopoly.

But it's also the iPhone... and as an iPhone user for several years now I will say that the complete user experience is incredibly seductive... more so than the Android devices I've had the chance to play with.

We'll have to see... the next year or so will be both an incredibly interesting and also turbulent time in this mobile space.

Will You Switch?

What do you think? If you are an AT&T iPhone user, will you switch? Now? or at renewal? If you are a Verizon Android user, are you tempted by the iPhone? Where do you see all this going?

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Very cool to see that the Android 2.3 release includes a SIP stack:

The platform now includes a SIP protocol stack and framework API that lets developers build internet telephony applications. Using the API, applications can offer voice calling features without having to manage sessions, transport-level communication, or audio — these are handled transparently by the platform's SIP API and services.

The SIP API is available in the android.net.sip package. The key class is SipManager, which applications use to set up and manage SIP profiles, then initiate audio calls and receive audio calls. Once an audio call is established, applications can mute calls, turn on speaker mode, send DTMF tones, and more. Applications can also use the SipManager to create generic SIP connections.

Naturally this SIP stack is only available if the carrier and manufacturer allow it:

The platform’s underlying SIP stack and services are available on devices at the discretion of the manufacturer and associated carrier. For this reason, applications should use the isApiSupported() method to check whether SIP support is available, before exposing calling functionality to users.

Call me cynical, but I could see a number of carriers NOT allowing the SIP stack.

The Android team has also very helpfully provided a SIP demo application.

I also am intrigued by the "Near Field Communications" addition (if you don't know what NFC is, the Wikipedia entry is a good start). Looking forward to seeing what people do with that!

All in all Android 2.3 looks like a decent evolution of the platform... I'm definitely interested to see what people do with with SIP / VoIP capability. If you are an Android developer working with communications, what are you planning to do with it?

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Great stats out of the Silicon Alley Insider's Chart of Day for this past Tuesday:

There was a 31% increase in active smartphones over the Thanksgiving weekend compared to the week prior...

The SAI post explains the chart and how the data was gathered:

Cool info to see!

(Although the paranoid security guy inside of me is admittedly wondering how many of the apps on my iPhone include Flurry's "analytics software" and what exactly it is sending to them... )

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Cisco, Avaya and RIM are all rushing out "tablet" devices now for the enterprise market - but will they actually matter?  Will enterprises really want to use these high-end and high-priced tablets versus all the new consumer tablets like the iPad and all the various Android and Windows tables in the queue?

Don't get me wrong ... it think it is awesome that Cisco, Avaya and RIM are all coming out with new tablets. Ever since getting an iPad back in early May it has become a constant companion on my travels around and I use it for so many different purposes.

The touch interface is also so incredibly "natural"... I watch my daughters using the iPad and just have to think: "Why shouldn't computers just work this way?"

Any user interface improvements that improve the communications user experience are very definitely a GOOD thing!

So I commend Cisco, Avaya and RIM for coming out with tablets.

I just still find myself wondering why I might want to pay to buy one of these tablets. I had this exchange yesterday with analyst Brian Riggs on Twitter:

As I said, I already have a SIP client on my iPad (and there are several options, in fact). I already have Skype. I already have WebEx and GoToMeeting for collaboration (and many other apps). Sure, I don't have video on the iPad - yet - but there are a range of Android consumer tablets coming out that do, and I wouldn't be surprised if Apple announces an iPad with a video camera sometime soon. Apple loves FaceTime right now... I wouldn't be surprised to see the iPad join the game.

I think Brian's point is the key:

avaya, cisco are betting they can do comms on tablets better than apple, etc.

And to a point, they are probably right. Real-time communications IS different than traditional web communications. This is very true.

There is, though, this one wee minor detail:

Apple has an entire ecosystem of developers building apps!

If Apple can deliver a hardware platform that provides the necessary devices (like an embedded camera for video), I would see the developer community rushing to use it. (And the Android community already has multiple devices coming out.)

On a more personal level, I've found my iPad to be much more like my mobile phone... it's a device I take with me to both personal and business functions/meetings/events. It's a "converged" device in that it reflects the blurring of the lines between my personal and business lives. I don't know that I'd want yet-another-device to carry around.

There is certainly the case that in large enterprises where you go to work on a "campus", the ability to have a work-specific device like this that you carry around could be valuable. But even there I'm not sure that I wouldn't also want my personal information, etc. with me. And isn't part of the value of a tablet that you could bring it home with you or while you are traveling?

Again, I commend the vendors on trying out a new form factor and user interface... I just find myself wondering why people won't simply want to use the consumer devices that are rapidly proliferating.

What do you think? Would you use a tablet from a communications vendor? Or would you want them to instead have apps that run on consumer devices?

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Skype today nicely release version 2.1.2 for the iPhone providing a key change for iPhone 4 / iOS 4 users.

As shown in the screenshot on the right, there is a new "Go Offline" option that allows you to control how Skype behaves when you switch to another application. For those of us who have used Skype on an iPhone 4, this was one of the challenges that was at times frustrating. When you simply switched to another app, Skype went into the background which is good in that you could continue to receive calls, notifications, etc.

However, in my experience I found that sometimes I did not want to keep getting those notifications - and more importantly I found that Skype would suck down the battery with all of the communication it was doing.

You now have an option in the Settings (which you need to access through the regular iPhone "Settings" app versus through the Skype app) where you can change how long it will be before Skype goes offline when it is put into the background. Images of both settings screens are shown below.

I've just installed this new version, so I haven't yet seen what impact this may or may not have on battery life, but I'm very pleased to see the option there.... thanks, Skype!

P.S. And yes, Skype also fixed a bunch of bugs and made a number of other changes, too...

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I own an iPhone. We have two, in fact... one that is my corporate phone provided by Voxeo and one that we bought for my wife as her personal phone. In the couple years I have been using it I have come to truly enjoy the user interface, the AppStore, the ecosystem, etc. It truly has changed how we as a society think of mobile devices.

But though I may be a Apple "fanboy" in many ways, I do have some grave concerns... such as the lock-in to the closed system controlled by Apple, which I wrote about at length related to the iPad. As a believer in open standards and an advocate for the open Internet, I'm glad to see Android out there... even as I read about it on my iPhone.

So naturally I was intrigued to read Paul Thurrott's piece titled "Droid Attack Spells Doom for iPhone". I've been reading Paul's writing for years related to various Microsoft and Windows topics... so when one of the chief Windows evangelists I know writes about Android... well, I pay attention to it a bit. Paul relays the story of his wife's move to a Droid phone and his own experience upon receiving a Droid X. (With, of course, the obligatory reference to Windows Phone 7 which he naturally views as superior. :-) )

You can read the piece for his full review, but he believes the devices truly have parity with the iPhone... and the "horrible" Android Market is where the Droid offerings fall down. He ends with this:

Aside from the abysmal online store experiences, however, Android and the Droid X are first rate. And looking ahead, I'll be comparing this system to the upcoming first generation Windows Phone 7 devices and to Apple's latest iPhone to see where these systems fall. For now, however, Android and the Droid X are, warts and all, already neck and neck with the iPhone 4. It's scary to think how one-sided this would be if Google just put a handful of UI experts on the marketplace. Game over, Apple. Game over.

That's the point, though. Apple has focused on the user experience. If you buy into the whole Apple stack (meaning their devices, iTunes, even Mac OS X), it's a wonderfully simple, easy-to-use, painless - and often delightful - experience.

But again, Apple's ecosystem is a closed, walled garden controlled by Apple. The user experience is so simple because Apple has constrained the choices. Open systems are messy. Open standards take a (usually long) while to evolve and converge.

The challenge before Google, and before Microsoft as they attempt again to re-enter the space, is to promote an open system[1] yet still deliver the simple and easy user experience that Apple delivers. I hope on one level that they succeed... we need the competition out there to keep the innovation accelerating. But it's a big challenge.

I don't think, Paul, that it's "Game over" for Apple at all... I think the game is just going to get more interesting...

[1] And I actually don't know how "open" Microsoft's system will be...

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As readers know, upgrading my iPhone 3G to iOS 4.0 was one of the dumbest things I've ever done. The iPhone 3G continues to be virtually unusable... this video parody is unfortunately rather accurate.

So when Steve Jobs announced last week that iOS 4.1 would be out soon with a fix for the iPhone 3G, I was thrilled to hear that.  Now Mark Gurman over at 9To5Mac has come out with a "Complete iOS 4.1 Walkthrough" that lists off what is in the forthcoming iOS4.1:

All that other stuff in iOS 4.1 looks great, if you have an iPhone 4... but all I want is my phone to start functioning again and not be so insanely slow.

P.S. Yes, I do know, and have written about, that you can downgrade an iPhone 3G. I haven't done that yet... waiting, mostly for this bug fix from Apple. If it works, I'm all set... if not, then yes, I'll be downgrading this useless piece of ____ :-)

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Back in February, Skype and Verizon announced a partnership that will be bringing Skype to various Verizon smartphones apparently this month. Last week more details emerged, including the fact that Skype would not be sold in Nokia's US app store because of the Verizon partnership.

Skype and Verizon also released this animated video explaining their partnership:

While I am an iPhone user who left Verizon behind (but would love to return to their network with an iPhone!), I applaud both Skype and Verizon for both their partnership as well as their creative way of explaining it.

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